Are HISA Rates Going Down in Canada? What Savers Should Do

This post is for general information only and is not financial advice. It covers Canadian savings accounts and was accurate as of October 25, 2026. The Bank of Canada's decision on October 28 had not been announced at the time of writing; forecasts below are economists' views, not predictions.

Every few weeks, the same question spikes across Canadian personal finance forums: are savings rates about to go down? This time there is a real reason to ask. The Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and for the first time in years, a rate hike is genuinely on the table. Economists are split, markets are pricing real odds of an increase, and savers are caught in the middle wondering what it means for the money sitting in their high-interest savings accounts.

Here is the honest answer, in three parts: what the decision is likely to be, why your HISA rate barely cares about it anyway, and what you should actually do before and after October 28.

Key takeaways

• The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET, alongside the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The current overnight rate target is 2.25%, set at the October 29, 2025 decision and held at every meeting since, most recently September 2, 2026.
• Forecasts are split. The C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council voted 6-to-1 for a hold on October 28. Oxford Economics now expects a 25-basis-point hike on October 28 and another in December. RBC economists see roughly even odds of a hike, which would be the first since July 2023. The CMHC's chief economist expects a hold for the rest of 2026.
• Your HISA rate does not track the policy rate directly. Banks pass rate changes through at their discretion. Regular HISA rates at Tangerine and Simplii have sat at 0.30% through the entire hold cycle while the policy rate sat at 2.25%.
• Promo rates are marketing, not monetary policy. A Bank of Canada move does not automatically change your 4.60% promo, and some offers (like Simplii's targeted 3.00%) hold the total fixed even if the regular rate moves.
• The saver's playbook does not depend on the decision. Know your promo expiry dates, know your fallback everyday rate, and decide on GICs based on when you need the money, not on a rate forecast.

The October 28 decision: what economists expect

Start with the mechanics. The Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is currently 2.25%, where it has been since the September 2, 2026 decision. That was the seventh straight hold following a cut in October 2025. The October 28 announcement arrives with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which means fresh forecasts for inflation and growth, and the last scheduled decision of the year follows on December 9.

The case for a hike rests on inflation. September 2026 headline inflation came in at 3.1%, driven mostly by gasoline prices, with inflation excluding gasoline at 2.2%. Global oil prices have surged: West Texas Intermediate has traded near US$100 per barrel through October, roughly 68% above year-earlier levels. Oxford Economics moved its forecast forward by roughly a year on October 22, citing higher oil prices and the risk that headline inflation stays elevated into early 2027. It now expects a 25-basis-point hike on October 28 and another in December, taking the rate to 2.75%, while calling the October decision itself a "toss-up" after weak employment data.

The case for a hold rests on the economy. Canada's labour market shed 68,300 jobs in September, the worst month of 2026, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.5%. August GDP growth looks to have been just 0.1%. CMHC chief economist Mathieu Laberge said on October 19 that he does not see rates going up anytime soon, expecting a hold for the rest of 2026 with hikes possibly returning in 2027. The C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council, which acts as a shadow Governing Council and includes the chief economists of Canada's six largest banks, voted six to one on October 22 to hold at 2.25% next week.

RBC's economists sit in the middle and capture the genuine uncertainty: they project a 25-basis-point hike, the first since July 2023, but describe their conviction as very low, calling it almost equally probable that the Bank holds in October and tees up a hike for December or January. Their read is that the Bank's communication since September signals a preference for acting preemptively against inflation rather than waiting for it to materialize.

For the full decision-day mechanics and what a hike or hold means for borrowers, see our Bank of Canada October 28 decision explainer. What follows is the saver-specific part that the borrower coverage skips.

Why your HISA rate does not move with the policy rate

Here is the misconception at the heart of the fear: most savers assume their HISA rate is the policy rate minus a haircut, moving in lockstep. It is not. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. Your HISA rate is a retail product price, set by each bank based on how badly it wants your deposits, what its competitors are paying, and the margin it wants to keep.

The evidence is sitting in your own account. The policy rate has been 2.25% since the October 2025 cut, held steady through seven consecutive decisions. Over that same period, the regular posted HISA rate at Tangerine and Simplii has been 0.30%. The gap between the policy rate and what big digital banks pay on ordinary balances is nearly two full percentage points, and it has not budged with any hold decision. When the Bank eventually moves, up or down, banks will pass it through to savings rates only insofar as competition forces them to.

This asymmetry is the defining feature of savings rates in Canada. When the policy rate falls, banks cut HISA rates quickly; deposit rates are a cost, and lower costs mean wider margins. When the policy rate rises, banks raise HISA rates slowly and partially, because every basis point they pass through is margin given away. The chartered-bank prime rate, currently 4.45%, moves in near-lockstep with the policy rate because variable mortgages are priced directly off it. Savings accounts have no such mechanical link.

There is a second reason your rate may not move: the institution you are with may simply not need deposits right now. Smaller institutions pay more for deposits because they need them. As of October 22, 2026, Saven Financial pays 2.85% everyday, Oaken Financial pays 2.80%, and EQ Bank pays 2.75% with a qualifying direct deposit, while the big digital banks pay 0.30% regular. That spread has nothing to do with the Bank of Canada and everything to do with business models. A rate hike does not force a bank that is comfortable at 0.30% to pay more; only the threat of losing deposits does.

So if the Bank hikes on October 28, expect variable mortgage rates to follow within days and HISA rates to follow eventually, partially, and unevenly. If the Bank holds, expect nothing to change at all, except the odds priced into the December meeting.

Promo rates vs everyday rates: two different games

Canadian savers are effectively playing two different games, and the October 28 decision affects them differently.

Promo rates are marketing budgets, not monetary policy. When Simplii offers 4.60% for five months or Tangerine offers 4.50%, the bank has decided to spend money acquiring deposits. That decision is driven by the bank's growth targets and competitive position, not by the Bank of Canada's overnight rate. A promo in flight is typically fixed for its term: your 4.60% does not become 4.85% because the Bank hiked, and it does not become 4.35% because the Bank held. Some targeted offers even hold the total fixed by construction: Simplii's targeted offer terms keep the total special rate at 3.00% even if the regular posted rate changes, with the promo portion adjusting to compensate.

What the Bank's decision does affect is the next round of promos. If the policy rate rises and stays higher, the promos banks offer three to six months from now will likely be priced off a higher base. If the Bank holds and eventually cuts, future promos will drift lower. But your current promo is a contract for its term; the decision does not rewrite it.

Everyday rates are where the policy rate eventually shows up. The 2.85% at Saven, 2.80% at Oaken, and 2.75% at EQ Bank are the rates these institutions pay to keep deposits without promotional fanfare. These are the rates most sensitive to the Bank's path over time, because they reflect each institution's ongoing cost of funds. Even here, the pass-through is partial and lagged: Ratehub's October 22, 2026 snapshot described deposit rates as "relatively stable," with HISA rates ranging from 1.50% to 4.60% depending on promos.

The practical distinction: if you are on a promo, October 28 changes nothing about your rate today; it only changes the landscape you will face when the promo expires. If you are on an everyday rate, October 28 might move your rate by a fraction of the Bank's move, weeks later, if your bank feels like it. Neither scenario rewards refreshing the Bank's website at 9:45 a.m.

What to do before and after October 28

The decision is three days away, and the right moves do not require knowing the outcome. They require knowing your own situation.

Before October 28: audit your promos, not the forecast. The far bigger risk to your savings return is not a quarter-point Bank move; it is a promo expiring unnoticed and your money dropping to 0.30%. Simplii's 4.60% new-customer promo ends October 31, Beem's 5.00% ends October 31, and a Tangerine targeted wave ends the same day. Check every promo expiry date in your accounts this week and set reminders a week out. Our HISA promo expiry calendar lists every major fall expiry and where to move the money.

The GIC question: decide on timing, not on the forecast. As of October 22, 2026, the best 1- to 5-year GIC rates ranged from 2.45% to 4.40%. A GIC locks your rate regardless of what the Bank does on October 28 or December 9, which is precisely its appeal right now: it converts uncertainty into a known number. The decision rule is simple. If you will not need the money for the full term, locking in removes the decision-day anxiety entirely, and current GIC rates are competitive with all but the best promos. If you might need the money, or if you enjoy promo-chasing and have the discipline for it, keep the cash in a competitive HISA. Do not try to time the GIC purchase around the announcement; a 25-basis-point move in the policy rate does not translate into a 25-basis-point move in GIC rates, and the bond market has already priced in most of the plausible outcomes.

After October 28: watch your bank, not the headlines. If the Bank hikes, give it two to four weeks, then check whether your institution moved your everyday rate. If it did not and a competitor did, that is information about how much your bank values your deposit. If the Bank holds, nothing changes except the December 9 odds, and your existing plan stands.

The one move that works in every scenario: know your fallback rate. Write down, for each savings account you hold, the promo rate, the expiry date, and the rate you fall back to. If the fallback is 0.30% at a big digital bank, your real decision is whether to chase the next promo or park at an everyday leader like Saven (2.85%), Oaken (2.80%), or EQ Bank (2.75% with direct deposit). That decision matters ten times more than anything the Bank announces on October 28.

For the evergreen ranking behind these numbers, see our best high-yield savings accounts in Canada for 2026.

Practical next steps

• This week: Log in to every HISA you hold and write down the current rate, whether it is a promo, and the exact expiry date. Set a calendar reminder seven days before each expiry.
• Do not move money based on the forecast. No economist has high conviction on October 28; RBC itself calls it nearly a coin flip. Position for either outcome instead: promos with known terms, or everyday rates with no cliff.
• If a promo expires within two weeks of the decision, line up the next home for the money now. Transfers take one to three business days; do not let the decision-day news cycle distract you from the transfer deadline.
• Consider a GIC only for money you truly will not need. Match the term to a real date (a down payment, tuition, a planned purchase), not to a rate view.
• After October 28: Check your everyday rates in mid-November. If your bank pockets the hike while competitors pass it through, move.
• Keep perspective on the numbers. A 25-basis-point policy move, even fully passed through, is about $21 a month on a $100,000 balance. An expired promo falling to 0.30% costs the same balance about $350 a month. Mind the bigger risk.

The bottom line

Are HISA rates going down in Canada? As of October 25, 2026, the honest answer is that nobody knows, because the Bank of Canada has not decided yet. Economists are split between a hold at 2.25% and a first hike since July 2023, with the decision landing Wednesday, October 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET. But here is what matters more: your HISA rate was never really the Bank's rate. It is your bank's price for your deposits, moved at its discretion, and the gap between the 2.25% policy rate and the 0.30% regular rate at the big digital banks tells you everything about who holds the power. Audit your promo expiries, know your fallback rate, and let the Bank's decision be background noise. The money you save by not falling off a promo cliff will dwarf anything October 28 does to your rate.

Sources

• Bank of Canada Should Maintain Overnight Rate at 2.25 Percent (C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council, Oct 22, 2026)
• Oxford Economics brings forward Bank of Canada rate hikes (Canadian Mortgage Trends, Oct 22, 2026)
• Bank of Canada Rate Hike 2026: What to Know (8Twelve Mortgage, updated Oct 19, 2026)
• Could inflation fears push Bank of Canada toward its first hike since 2022? (Canadian Mortgage Professional, Oct 22, 2026)
• Bank of Canada Rate Hike Odds, October 28, 2026 (Insight Finance, Oct 2026)
• Best savings accounts in Canada (Ratehub, updated Oct 22, 2026)
• Best HISA rates in Canada (RetireSmarter, stamped Oct 22, 2026)
• Promotions tracker (highinterestsavings.ca, accessed Oct 22, 2026)
• Simplii promotional savings rate offer terms, HISA October 2026 (Simplii Financial PDF)
• WTI crude at $97.90 per barrel on Oct 20, 2026, up 67.8% from a year earlier (Macrotrends, FRED data)